2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season
This is a holiday-themed season similar to Steve's "2013-14 North Pole Hurricane Season". However, since Steve is gone, I have decided to do one this year. I know it's not the holiday season yet, but it will be soon. This will be an as-it-unfolds season with frequent updates coming to this page between now and the week after Christmas. The 2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season '''is an ongoing event in the Arctic Ocean basin. The season will officially begin on November 1 and end on January 7, dates that typically delimit the start and end of the season. However, Polar Storm Angel formed nearly 4 weeks before the season officially begins on October 5. Angel later intensified into a Polar Cyclone, becoming the second-earliest polar cyclone on record. Another pre-season storm, Polar Storm Bell, formed on October 16, which was the earliest second named storm in the basin. Storm formation can also occur outside of the designated dates. The most common time for storms to form though is from mid-to-late December. Storms, even tropical cyclones, can cross from other basins into the Arctic basin. Should this happen, the storm would keep their original name. These types of storms are more common early in the season. Season Summary Pre-Season Forecasts Due to mixed reports on what conditions would exist in the Arctic Ocean, no predictions were issued for this season until late. The BNWC originally said that there was a near equal chance in a below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal season. Average activity in the basin has roughly 15 named storms, 8 polar cyclones, and 3 major cyclones, with roughly two to four storms making landfall in the north pole. However, on October 12, 2015, the BNWC announced their 2015-16 forecast of 18 named storms, 10 polar cyclones and 5 major cyclones, a slightly above-average season. Two more forecasts were released in mid-October: the FMC announced a prediction of 17.3 named storms, 7.8 polar cyclones and 3.0 major polar cyclones on October 17. Later, on October 18, the LJWC made their prediction of 15 named storms, 8 polar cyclones and 4 major polar cyclones. The BNWC later revised their original prediction on October 21 by predicting 20-24 named storms, 10-12 polar cyclones and 5-7 major cyclones, due to the early formation of Polar Cyclones Angel and Bell, which would be a near record-breaking season in activity. If you still want to make a pre-season prediction, make it here! October The season had a very early start. On October 4, the first invest of the season formed, Invest 90N, and was first listed with 15 mph winds. The system then intensified into Polar Storm Angel on October 5. Angel later acquired hurricane-force winds on October 7, prompting an upgrade to Weak Polar Cyclone status. Angel acquired its peak intensity in the early morning hours on October 8 with winds of 90 mph. However, later that day, Angel was downgraded to a Polar Storm. Angel later became post-polar late on October 9. The storm completely dissipated on October 11. Invest 91N later developed in mid-October. On October 16, 91N developed into Polar Depression Two. Two was upgraded to Polar Storm Bell the next day, becoming the earliest second named storm in history. On October 20, Bell was upgraded to a polar cyclone, the second of the season. Early on October 22, Bell was upgraded to a major polar cyclone - the earliest in history. Arctic Cyclone Discussion For the Arctic/North Pole basin...north of 55°N latitude: '''Severe Polar Cyclone BELL - 8:00 PM EDT October 22, 2015 Max Sustained Winds: 155 mph; Min pressure: 928 mbar Moving N at 7 mph Polar Cyclone Bell continues rapid deepening. As of 8pm, its winds have increased to 155 mph - just 1 mph below Catastrophic Polar Cyclone status. Due to this, we expect Bell to become a Catastrophic Polar Cyclone (category 5) by tomorrow morning. The storm should intensify a little bit more before it makes landfall in Baffin Island. Afterwards, Bell should weaken some, but could re-intensify next week as it enters the Baffin Bay. Forecast trajectory: 8AM Fri 10/23: 160 MPH 8PM Fri 10/23: 160 MPH 8PM Sat 10/24: 155 MPH 8PM Sun 10/25: 125 MPH 8PM Mon 10/26: 130 MPH 8PM Tue 10/27: 140 MPH Next complete advisory expected at 11PM EDT. In other news... "Invest 92N" - Updated 8:00 PM EDT October 22, 2015 An extratropical low pressure area producing moderate snow and frozen precipitation is located over Ontario, north of the Great Lakes. The system is still predicted the Hudson Bay next week. Due to low wind shear and continued favorable conditions, some slow development of this system remains possible by early next week. Development chances have increased slightly. *Formation chance within 48 hours...low...10 percent *Formation chance within 5 days...medium...40 percent -BNWC Storms Polar Cyclone Angel On October 4, the Bob Nekaro Weather Center began monitoring a small area of low pressure producing snow showers, located about 400 miles south of the North Pole, directly north of Canada. At their first advisory at 4PM EDT, the BNWC predicted that the disturbance would have a 0% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days. However, the storm rapidly intensified, and was given an 80% chance of development by 3PM on October 5. Later that afternoon, satellite imagery from a BNWC Cyclone Hunters aircraft found a closed circulation and named the storm Polar Storm ''Angel nearly four weeks before the season officially begins. Angel later strengthened on October 6, and acquired Polar Cyclone status on October 7 at 3:00 PM. However, wind shear later inhibited development of the storm, and later on October 7 it was determined that it was highly unlikely that Angel would make landfall or reach major cyclone status. Angel weakened to a Polar Storm on October 8. Angel experienced steady weakening over the next 24 hours, and became post-polar late on October 9. Polar Cyclone Bell On October 12, the BNWC began monitoring an area of low pressure that was expected to form over Canada, for possible polar cyclogenesis. On October 14, the area of low pressure formed and moved off the coast of Canada into the Hudson Bay. Due to wind shear, development was initially viewed as unlikely for the next week. However, the storm moved much slower than originally expected, and wind shear relaxed slightly. This led to the system being designated Polar Depression Two on October 16 at 5PM. At 5:00 PM on October 17, it was upgraded to Polar Storm Bell. Bell is currently active with winds of 155 mph and a minimum pressure of 928 mbar. On October 19, after originally being predicted to dissipate early in the week, Bell's track was changed due to a more favorable environment than previously expected. Bell was upgraded to a Moderate Polar Cyclone on October 21, and a Severe Polar Cyclone on October 22. As of 8:00PM October 22, Bell is predicted to become a Category 5 Catastrophic Polar Cyclone. Timeline ImageSize = width:700 height:325 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:210 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/10/2015 till:15/01/2016 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/10/2015 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Polar_Depression_=_<39_mph id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Polar_Storm_=_39-73_mph id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Weak_Polar_Cyclone_=_74-95_mph id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Moderate_Polar_Cyclone_=_96-110_mph id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Intense_Polar_Cyclone_=_111-129_mph id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Severe_Polar_Cyclone_=_130-155_mph id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Catastrophic_Polar_Cyclone_≥_156_mph Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:05/10/2015 till:09/10/2015 color:C1 text: Angel (WK) from:16/10/2015 till:22/10/2015 color:C5 text: Bell (CA) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/10/2015 till:01/11/2015 text:October from:01/11/2015 till:01/12/2015 text:November from:01/12/2015 till:01/01/2016 text:December from:01/01/2016 till:15/01/2016 text:January 2016 Scale This scale is based off the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, but with different terms for each category. Names Used A Christmas-themed name list will be used. These names are all different from Steve's. Should all names be used, the Hebrew alphabet will be used to name the storms. Storms List Category:Currently Active seasons Category:Arctic cyclone seasons Category:Arctic cyclones